April 26, 2006: Nothing to celebrate in Cairo...

By Laura Mansfield

In Egypt, since 1982, April 25 has been a national holiday and a day of celebrating as Egyptians honor Sinai Liberation Day. Sinai Liberation Day commemorates the day in 1982 when Israel returned the Sinai to Egypt as part of the Camp David Accords.

But this year there is little celebrating in Cairo.

It wasn’t just the resorts full of foreign tourists or the United Nations Multinational Peacekeepers that were the targets of the attacks this week by Al Qaeda in the Sinai; it was the Egyptian economy and the government of Hosni Mubarak.

Egypt, whose economy depends heavily on the foreign currency revenues brought in by international tourists who come to visit not just the Pyramids and other ancient monuments, but who come to relax and scuba dive in the Sinai and Red Sea resorts.

Like the US, Egypt and its government under Hosni Mubarak are considered by Al Qaeda to be their sworn enemy. It was Hosni Mubarak’s government that cracked down on the Islamists in Egypt after the assassination of Anwar Sadat in 1981 by a radical group that included Al Qaeda second in command Dr. Ayman Zawahiri. Zawahiri, who spent several years in prison in Egypt for his role in the Sadat assassination, continues to harbor a grudge against the Cairo government, which has both one of his sons and his brother in its prisons.

Both Zawahiri and Bin Laden have lashed out at Egypt on multiple locations, singling out Mubarak as a tyrant and an enemy of Islam.

Al Qaeda publications over the past decade have made it clear that they consider the economy of a country as a valid target. After all, they reason, if they can destabilize a country’s economy, any resulting economic hardship on the people can result in “regime change”, either through elections or other means.

Egypt is particularly vulnerable to this type of economic blackmail.

Although Egyptian exports of other products such as cotton is increasing, the country depends heavily on three sources of foreign currency to keep the economy afloat: revenues from the Suez Canal, oil, and foreign tourists.

Despite its rich cultural heritage, Egypt remains very much a developing country. Poverty is rampant. Children die on a regular basis from diseases that only cause minor inconvenience to most western children, such as diarrheal diseases. (The infant mortality rate from diarrheal diseases has dropped considerably thanks to US and European funded oral rehydration education programs, in effect teaching mothers about Rehydran, the local equivalent of Pedialyte.)

Sides of beef still hang from hooks in open air butcher shops; chickens are sold curbside by street vendors, who slaughter them for customers at the time of purchase.

Much of Egypt’s population continues to live on a diet of rice, vegetables, and the Egyptian staple, “foul”, or beans.

When the price of bread increases by a few piastres (four piastres make up one US cent), riots break out in the streets.

In 1975, riots broke out in Cairo when the period of enlistment was extended for the police conscripts. Egypt has a mandatory government service law; men are drafted into the armed services and women are required to perform government service as well, although not in the military. The pay is dismal – at the time it was the equivalent of less than $8 a month. When they were told they would not be completing their service on schedule, they went on a proverbial rampage, rushing out of their camps near the Pyramids. Several foreign hotels were burned; miraculously there was only one fatality among the foreigners – an elderly person who died of a heart attack in the commotion. (For a first-hand account of Cairo during these riots, please see my book Inshallah.)

In short, a large percentage of Egypt is living right on the edge of survival and is only a few Egyptian pounds away from taking to the streets.

Any major drop in foreign currency will quickly ripple through the country. Frightening foreign tourists away would have this effect very quickly.

Al Qaeda may very well be counting on this to trigger a “regime change” within Cairo.

There is no question that Mubarak is a target of Al Qaeda. In 1995, Al Qaeda attempted to assassinate him while he was on a state visit to Addas Abbaba, Ethiopia.

The aging Mubarak continues to walk a political tightrope, as Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood become more and more powerful. There is no clear cut line of succession for Mubarak, although many analysts believe that his son Gamal is being groomed to succeed him.

It isn’t clear, however, if Gamal Mubarak can rally the popular support that would be needed to legitimize his government. Gamal Mubarak, whose maternal grandmother is Welch, holds an MBA from the American University in Cairo. While he was at AUC, I had the opportunity to speak with Gamal Mubarak on several occasions, and I came away with the impression that he is very intelligent, and very pro-Western. Although a government run by Gamal Mubarak in Cairo would likely be American-friendly, Gamal Mubarak doesn’t have the power of his father, who earned much of his legitimacy through his roles commanding the Egyptian Air Force in the wars with Israel. Gamal Mubarak may not be able to stand up to the Islamists and any regime under his control will likely be very short-lived.

Meanwhile, the Al Qaeda and their Islamist allies are posed to fill any power vacuum.

There’s no celebrating in Egypt today.

The current events are nothing to celebrate.