Zawahiri: Dead or Alive. An analysis of last weekend's tape

by Laura Mansfield

Was last weekend’s audiotape of Al Qaeda second in command Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri, a quiet announcement of the terror leader’s death a week before in a US air strike in the Pakistani tribal town of Damadoula?

Initial reports indicated Zawahiri had been killed in the strike; later reports claimed that he had in fact skipped the dinner invitation, but that his son-in-law had been killed instead.

However, two weeks after the strike, the circumstances still suggest that either Zawahiri was killed in the strike, or that at the very least there are those high up in the Al Qaeda echelon who as of last weekend believed he was dead.

In the days following the air strike, news emerged that the bodies of five of the alleged Al Qaeda mujahideen who were killed were hastily buried; the locations of two of those bodies remain unknown. It is widely speculated that those bodies were removed and secreted away in an effort to prevent the Pakistanis and Americans from conducting DNA tests in an effort to identify those who died.

Within hours of the initial reports speculating that Zawahiri was killed, a message denying the death of Zawahiri appeared on an Arabic language forum where Al Qaeda and their sympathizers frequently post.

Then last weekend, a 17 minute audio tape was posted, which contained Zawahiri reading a poem by an Al Qaeda member-turned-poet, commenting on the deaths of two former members of the Al Qaeda leadership team, including Abu Hafs al Masri, who was killed in a US air strike in 2001.

Many analysts have speculated that this audiotape was released to show that Zawahiri is alive and well.

But a different conclusion is also justified. I'm going to play devil's advocate here for a few minutes and take a serious look at another possible interpretation.

It is equally valid to suggest that this message is confirmation of the death of Zawahiri.

Some analysts have postulated that the death of a high level Al Qaeda leader such as Bin Laden or Zawahiri would be recognized in much the same way as that of Al Qaeda Saudi Arabia leader Abu Hajar al Muqrin, who was killed in a shootout with Saudi officials shortly after the murder of American hostage Paul Johnson.

However, in that case, there was a reasonably intact body to photograph.

In the case of Abu Hafs al Masri, who was widely considered to be Al Qaeda third in command, and who was killed in a US air strike in Afghanistan, no such celebratory outpouring occurred. It is likely that the death of Bin Laden or Zawahiri would be treated in this way if there were no recognizable remains to be photographed and displayed.

With Abu Hafs al Masri’s death, the jihadis posted immediate denials of his demise, insisting that instead he was alive and well. It was only acknowledged by the jihadis after DNA testing of his remains by the US confirmed his death, and even then the acknowledgement was quiet. In essence, Abu Hafs al Masri, third in command of Al Qaeda, simply faded into the sunset with no big fuss.

In fact, the most conspicuous mention of Abu Has al Masri by Al Qaeda and its supports since his death in 2001 was in last weekend’s audio tape by Zawahiri. In that message, Zawahiri mourns the death of his comrade at arms.

Those who posted the tape claimed it was a new tape; however, nothing in the tape indicates that it was made recently, and it may have been made as far back and December 2001.

The tape appeared far too quickly to be a newly recorded response to debunk rumors of Zawahiri’s demise.

Historically, Al Qaeda operatives have recorded video and audio tapes to be played upon their demise; in many cases, after suicide attacks the will of the attacker will be released to celebrate the death of the attacker, who Islamists believe will enter directly into paradise, having given his life in the cause of jihad.

It is possible that this Zawahiri tape is just that – a pre-recorded message planned to be released upon the death of Zawahiri, to quietly commemorate his death. If Zawahiri in fact died in a US air strike, and not in an attack against or in battle against the “infidels”, then his death would not be cause for as much celebration. In fact it might be construed as a sort of defeat should their leader die while sitting down eating dinner.

Now let me clarify that I am not 100% convinced as to the status of Zawahiri. I honestly don’t know if he is alive or dead. But I do think that there is a possibility that he died in that air strike at Damadoula.

Time will show whether this is the case or not. If he is alive, a Zawahiri tape will be eventually released which can be dated by Zawahiri’s mention of recent events. But until such a tape emerges, I remain unconvinced that he is alive.