Russia: Russian Analysts on Possible Scenarios of US-Israeli Attack on Iran

Article by Vladmir Ivanov and Viktor Myasnikov

In Tehran, they are convinced that an American-Israeli invasion (of Iran) will begin in spring during the Navruz holiday. In this connection, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated: "We are on the eve of a great event, when our revolution will lead all of humanity out onto the correct road. "

An officer of the Russian special services, who has been constantly following the situation in Iran, and a well-known political scientist told "NVO" about the possible scenarios of combat operations.

Operational plans of the Pentagon.

An officer of the Russian special services, who has constantly followed the situation in Iran, told "NVO" the following:

Generals of the Pentagon annually work out about 70 planning documents for the conducting of combat operations. More than half of them bear a concrete character. Measures are set forth in them which should be carried out by the Armed Forces in case of the beginning of combat operations and the infliction of strikes on clearly designated enemy targets is stipulated in them. The second half of the plans set the general approaches for the conducting of combat operations in various regions in case of the unfavorable development of a situation, from the point of view of American politicians and the military.

The main part of these plans is of a secret nature. However, part of the information on an approximate trend of these plans and even their official numbers end up in the American press.

It is known that there is a conceptual plan in the American Joint Chiefs of Staff for the defense of Israel under the name, "CONPLAN 4305" (REFERENCE here is to Pentagon contingency plans that are designated CONPLANS, or "Operations Plans in Concept Form Only"), which is corrected on an annual basis. According to certain information, the Joint Chiefs of Staff also have plans for carrying out strikes on Iran by the forces of the Pentagon itself.

According to assessments of a prominent Russian specialist on Iran, who wishes to remain anonymous, possible actions by the United States against that country are, at the present time, quite problematic. In the first place, America is mired down in Iraq and Afghanistan and the bringing of the situation in those countries up to the state planned by the United States is not certain, even in the remote future. Secondly, the enormous burden of military expenditures also may hamper an invasion of Iran by the Americans.

However, the expert does not rule out the possibility of such an invasion. According to him, Israel is showing special activity in this matter. Israel is extremely worried about the progress of Tehran in the fulfillment of its nuclear program and regards it (i. e., the Iranian nuclear program) as a real threat in the highest degree, especially since Tel Aviv is in the strike zone of Iranian ballistic missiles.

The expert thinks that, under pressure of Israel, the United States may carry out strikes on Iran. At the end of last year, one of the high-ranking representatives of Israel military intelligence stated that Israel is ready to set to work on the destruction of the nuclear facilities of Iran. That intelligence officer even emphasized that it is necessary to do that in the spring. However, the Russian expert is convinced that Israel is not in the state to do that independently, although the United States has provided it with a large number of high-precision weapons that are intended for the destruction of protected underground facilities.

In the words of the Russian specialist, strikes with high-precision bombs and missiles will be carried out on the nuclear facilities of Iran. Officially, there are 14 such facilities. However, the expert claims that there are significantly more of them. Although Israeli and American intelligence organizations constantly give intensive attention to Iran, they nevertheless do not know where all of the nuclear facilities are located. The expert pointed out: "Taking the large number of secret facilities into consideration, it is not possible for Israel rapidly, effectively, and completely to destroy the nuclear industry of Iran only with its forces.

The second group of targets for the carrying out of strikes may be the missile and aviation bases, which number more than 60 in Iran, and enterprises of the Iranian defense-industrial complex that are engaged in the production of missile weapons.

The expert also does not rule out the possibility of the landing of American mobile forces from US military bases in the greater Near East on the territory of Iran, primarily from Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover, under the device of a battle against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, the United States may "come to an agreement" on the use of the "jump-off air fields" on the territories of former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus, as was the case in the war in Afghanistan.

The Iranian leadership, for whom the heating up of the situation in the region is an advantage, since its opposition to America raises the authority of the country in the Moslem world, also is preparing itself for the worst outcome of events. The Armed Forces of Iran are quite powerful and well-trained. However, Teheran understands that the Armed Forces of Iran are not in a state to withstand a direct armed confrontation with the United States. Consequently, the Iranian leadership is conducting measures for the training of its border formations and "Basij" sub-units (mobilized reserve forces) for the carrying out of guerilla warfare throughout the territory of the country. If the extremely high level of the anti-American mood of the Iranians is taken into consideration, an American invasion of Iran may become an even greater headache for the White House than Iraq and Afghanistan.

There will be no ground operations.

Aleksandr Khramchikhin, the head of an analytical department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, mentioned that, when the United States invaded Iraq, the idea was obvious that the next target for an attack would be Iran. It was thought that the population (of Iran) would support a regime change as I(the population of Iraq) supported the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. But, in reality, it should expect bitter, hardened resistance. The Iranians will not be concerned with losses. They do not fear death. After all, they think death in a Jihad is a direct way of getting to Paradise. Suffice it to recall how, during the Iranian-Iraqi War, "human waves" of teenagers ran out onto the mine fields and, by sacrificing themselves in that way, cleared the way for the troops.

The United States barely has the resources to support an occupation contingent in Iraq, where it is thoroughly bogged down. Consequently, the only possible form of combat operations consists of an air strike using aviation and cruise missiles. That is, there will be a repetition of the scenario for the war with Yugoslavia, when the goal of the aggression was achieved exclusively with air strikes: The regime of Milosevich fell, the Serbs abandoned Kosovo, and the military-industrial potential of the state was completely ruined.

The Iranian air defense forces will not be able to put up any serious resistance. According to information available to the expert, American air defense missile complexes, supplied to Iran in the 1970s, are not in working order due to a lack of spare parts. The Russian S-200 complexes have a long range but are ineffective against highly-maneuverable, tactical aviation. The Chinese S-75 (SAM) complexes have been obsolete for a long time and are not capable of hitting modern aircraft. Recently Iran bought Russian "Tor" short-range air defense complexes but they still need to be mastered and assimilated. But the Iranian air and air-defense forces are simply not comparable with the American Air Force and will not be able to put up any serious resistance.

Consequently, Iran, powerless in the air, may only have one option for a response--to carry out an attack with its ground forces. Of course, (such an attack would) only in the direction of Iraq. However, the great numerical strength (of the Iranian ground troops) and their high combat spirit cannot vie with superior technical weapons and equipment of the enemy. In the opinion of Aleksandr Khramchikhin, American aviation would destroy the attacking Iranian columns long before they reach the frontlines of the US Army.

But the Iranian ayatollahs may use an asymmetric response. They may bring about a Shiite uprising (against the US-led occupation forces) in Iraq. That would be a catastrophe for the United States. Suffice it to remember that the Americans have not been able to suppress the guerrilla movement of a relatively small number of Sunnis, who inhabit only three provinces of Iran. True, it is necessary to keep in mind that the Shiite communities of the two countries are quite remote from each other. The Shiite leaders of Iraq participate in elections and already have their own share of administrative power. And the eternal confrontation between Arabs and Persians should not be discounted here. Moreover, the Iraqi Shiites look down somewhat on the Iranian Shiites, since all of the main Shiite sacred places are in Iraq itself. At the same time, it is not ruled out that the Islamic factor will play a decisive role and the uprising may begin from below, without the blessing of the spiritual leaders and tribal leaders.

Moreover, Iran has a certain number of "Shahab" short-range and medium-range tactical missiles. They were manufactured based on obsolete Soviet and North Korean "Scud" missiles. But the expert is sure that they cannot inflict any serious losses since they are relatively inaccurate in striking (targets). Iran still does not possess the technologies that will make it possible for it to produce high-precision missile weapons.

Background information.

The Armed Forces of Iran.

There are about 325 thousand soldiers in the ground forces of Iran, 45 thousand in the Air Force, and 32 thousand in the Navy. Moreover, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard corps is at the disposal of the military-political leadership of Iran, as well as sub-units of special forces and Basij mobilized reserve forces.

There are 40 "Shahab-3" missiles, about 400 combat aircraft, more than 100 transport aircraft, 1,740 armored vehicles, "ground-to-air" air defense complexes, volley-fire rocket systems, and large-caliber artillery in the armament of the Armed Forces of Iran.

The Navy of Iran, which is considered to be the most combat-ready (navy) in the zone of the Persian Gulf, includes 3 frigates, 2 corvettes, 20 missile boats, 20 torpedo boats, 13 assault landing ships, 28 auxiliary vessels, 3 submarines, 22 aircraft, and 15 helicopters.

The mobilization capabilities of Iran, in the opinion of American military experts, consist of approximately 7 million persons, However the leadership of Iran claims that, in case of necessity, 20 million soldiers and officers can be put under arms.

Forces, expenditures, and losses of the United States in its largest wars of recent times.

In "Operation Desert Storm", conducted by Washington and its allies in 1991, 760,000 soldiers participated, including 500,000 soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of the United States. The war was mainly conducted through the use of air attacks. The international forces lost 379 soldiers (killed) and 148 of the soldiers of the United States were killed, half of them due to "friendly fire". One aircraft and 28 helicopters were lost while only one Apache military helicopter was shot down by Iranian artillery fire. The rest were destroyed due to technical and weather conditions. The war cost Washington 61 billion dollars, of which 48 billion dollars (80 percent) were paid by allies of the United States, such as Japan, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

From its beginning on 7 October 2001, "Operation Enduring Freedom" against the Taliban in Afghanistan has cost the United States 50 billion dollars, according to official data. By 1 November 2005, 246 soldiers had been killed and 583 soldiers had been wounded there. In that period (i. e., from 7 October 2001 up to 1 November 2005), one civilian aircraft and several combat aircraft and been destroyed.

In "Operation Shock and Awe" against Iraq, which began in March 2003, the Pentagon sent more than 145 thousand soldiers into Iraq. Later, the grouping of the United States and its allies consisted of 270 thousand soldiers. At the present time, (that grouping) consists of 300,000 soldiers (Sic. There was a total of approximately 184,000 coalition soldiers in Iraq at the end of November 2005.). The operation included the participation of 1,700 armored vehicles, 1,100 helicopters, 420 carrier-based aircraft, 500 aircraft of the grouping of ground forces, more than 200 ships and vessels (including 5 aircraft carriers), and about 25 nuclear-powered submarines. From March 2003 through November 2005, the United States lost 2,000 soldiers. The total costs for the combat operations and the police operations in that period amounted to no less than 200 billion dollars.

(Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye in Russian -- Weekly independent military newspaper published by Nezavisimaya Gazeta)