January 23, 2006: Thoughts on Osama Bin Laden tape of January 18, 2006

by Laura Mansfield

Last week’s audio-taped message from Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden concluded with the following comments:

We patiently fought the Soviet Union with small humble weapons for ten years and we drained their economy until they collapsed and vanished, praise be to Allah. 

You should have learned a lesson from that. 

We will be patient fighting you, Allah willing, until one of us dies.  We will never flee from fighting you until the end.

Osama Bin Laden is telling us in no uncertain terms that he believes he has found the Achilles Heel of the United States, and that he will be aiming directly for that spot.

Our Achilles Heel is patience.  As a nation, we have lost our patience.  We no longer are capable of pulling together for the long haul.  We expect everything to happen in nice, short, easily digestible segments, with no pain, discomfort, or even inconvenience along the way.

I was at a women’s meeting this weekend.  One of the women said, only half in jest, “I’m taking this war in Iraq personally; now children of my friends are being sent over there”.

That is a statement that you will hear echoed throughout the US.  By and large, we’re willing to get behind a cause for a while, until it starts impacting us or our friends.  We support extra security as long as we aren’t the ones who are being watched more closely.

We are by and large a TV people.  We have demonstrated that we want quick results.  When we get bored because it’s taking too long to get the job done, then we want to quit.

Osama Bin Laden has declared war on the United States. Almost everyone in American knew that on September 12, 2001, a day after the first salvo was launched, bringing down the twin towers of the World Trade Center and setting the Pentagon on fire. 

While the fires burned, President Bush declared a “War on Terror” and vowed to bring justice to those who attacked us.  The crowds cheered the President, cursed Bin Laden, and waved flags.  A bipartisan chorus from the Senate and House joined together on the Capitol steps to sing God Bless America.

But despite the warnings from our Commander in Chief, most of America failed to grasp that the “War on Terror” was no ordinary war.  Even today, most would mark the beginning of the War on Terror as September 11, 2001.  Most thought that we would march into Afghanistan, liberate the country, kick the butts of the Taliban, and watch Bin Laden do the Perp Walk before the next Super Bowl.

In reality, the War on Terror began nearly a quarter of a century earlier, with the Islamic Revolution in Iran and continued full swing through the 1980’s.  U.S. Embassies and housing complexes for our military were bombed, American diplomats, private citizens, and military personnel were kidnapped, executed and some beheaded. The US Embassy in Tehran was overrun by Radical Islamist students in Iran; the staff was held hostage for 444 days.  Nightclubs, airports, and airplanes were targeted by bombs and automatic weapons.

Radical Islam had declared War on America.

Meanwhile the other Superpower of the late 20^th century found itself embroiled in its own battle with Radical Islam, when the Soviet Union marched its armies into Afghanistan.

Radical Islam turned to the US for help against the Soviets: the US trained and armed guerilla soldiers who adopted the name “mujahideen” from the early Holy warriors who followed the Prophet Mohamed were eager to accept weapons from the “Great Satan”. 

In retrospect, it is obvious, but at the time few recognized this was simply a case of the “mujahideen” following the old axiom “the enemy of my enemy is by friend”, a practice that they continue to follow, most notably in the alliance between the Sunni Al Qaeda and the Shi’ite government in Iran.

From a military strategy standpoint, the Soviet Union was completely unprepared for the enemy they faced.  They had planned and drilled for battle with the United States.  They anticipated that their biggest threat would come from the huge war machine of the US military. 

Bin Laden summed up the battle strategy that he and his “mujahideen” used to bring down the Soviets: 

We patiently fought the Soviet Union with small humble weapons for ten years and we drained their economy until they collapsed and vanished

Bin Laden is quite clear that he is using the same strategy against the United States.  

Unless we pay attention he is likely to succeed.

Osama is not some rube from the boonies.  He is an intelligent and educated man who is driven by a religious fervor, making him even more dangerous.  He saw the dent that the US economy took after 9/11.  He has carefully observed the behavior of the US economy every time he releases a new taped message.

He was paying attention when Hurricane Katrina roared into the Gulf Coast.

He knows that the US people have a short memory; he knows that we are a spoiled nation. He knows that with rare exceptions, we are one paycheck away from disaster as individuals, one natural or manmade disaster away from social collapse on a regional basis at the very least.

He knows the impact oil prices have on the US economy; he knows that while we are terror-phobic, we aren’t willing to make the sacrifices and changes it will require to mitigate the risk of terrorism.

He knows that the more chronological distance that is put between us and the 9/11 attacks, the less we remember, and the more at risk we become from shoving our heads into the sand ostrich-like.

And he knows the damage it will cause when he sends his suicide bombers after us on our own soil.  I’m not talking about the damage to property or the loss of life; I’m talking about serious damage to our morale and to our national psyche, as well as to the economy.

In the message, Bin Laden says:

We would not object if you ask for a long-term truce based on fair conditions that we both agree to. As a nation, God has forbidden us to lie and cheat, thus both sides can enjoy security and stability through a truce while we rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan, which have both been demolished through war.  

But he also says:

In the end, victory in this war will either be for us or for you.  If it is for us, you will be disgraced and this is the way things are progressing;  but if it is the latter, you should read history and you would learn that as a nation we do not sleep in defeat, and we will avenge our defeat forever, and many days and nights will not pass before we take our revenge as we did on September 11.

He is telling us that he will agree to a truce with us, if we ask for it.  After all, he has nothing to lose.  He is laying out his terms for us in this message.  He will agree to a truce until they can rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan, and have a safe haven as their base of terror. 

But they will never forget, and will never give up the battle.

Charles Welty, author of Ameristan, has defined the Arabic word Hudna, which is used to mean truce, as “pause while we reload our weapons”.

That is the kind of truce Bin Laden is offering.  He would like for us to ease up, to give up the battle while he regroups.

Osama Bin Laden is a patient man.  He can and will wait until the time suits him. 

He said in the message:

The delay in similar operations in America, is not because we cannot break through your security;  operations are being planned that you will see carried out in your homes.

He’s stressing to us that he has considerable patience.  He will wait as long as he needs in order to accomplish his goals.  If we kill him, then he is rewarded in paradise.  In his twisted mind, if he survives, he will be rewarded on earth and in paradise.

He knows that America has a short memory.  He is working on a hundred year plan; he knows America is on a four year plan – because everything can change at the next Presidential election.

The Soviet Union fell because their strategic planners misjudged their enemy.  After all how much damage could be done a rag tag bunch of men with riles and a handful of RPG launchers?  They weren’t the first to underestimate their enemy - the British made a similar mistake a couple of centuries before, in 1776.

Let’s hope we don’t make the same mistake today.